Will Trump’s return strengthen India-China economic ties? Ian Bremmer speaks

With Donald Trump set to return as US President, India-China relations could enter a complex phase as both nations will need to adjust to Washington’s shifting policies. Political scientist Ian Bremmer suggested that Trump’s focus on economic decoupling from China may drive Beijing to seek stronger ties with other regional powers, including India. Bremmer noted that this shift could be driven by Trump’s trade policies, which aim to increase scrutiny of China’s manufacturing and export practices.
In an exclusive interview with India Today’s News Director Rahul Kanwal, Bremmer said that “China may push to improve relations with India as a counter to rising US tariffs.”
According to Bremmer, Trump’s administration, as in the past, will monitor trade flows carefully, examining cases where countries like India might act as intermediaries for Chinese goods, potentially allowing Chinese exports to enter the US market indirectly. “Ensuring coordination to prevent this or impose adequate tariffs will be a priority,” Bremmer said, adding that Washington will likely address the matter with New Delhi early in Trump’s term.
China’s economic difficulties may open doors for India in manufacturing and investment. “India is in a better position to respond to these challenges than most countries,” Bremmer said, pointing to India’s lower labour costs and recent efficiency gains.
However, India must also navigate increased global economic pressure, with Trump’s inflationary policies expected to strengthen the dollar, placing strain on developing economies.
In response, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will need to balance these pressures, working to capitalise on openings with the US while managing China’s potential overtures for a stronger diplomatic relationship, Bremmer said.